Draft Day: The Cold Dread
The wind howled, a mournful dirge that carried the scent of decay. The sky, a canvas of gray, seemed to press down, heavy and unforgiving. In a town where hope had long since withered, a new darkness loomed.
The people huddled together, their fear a palpable weight in the air. They sought solace in the familiar, in the worn rituals of their lives. But even the comforting hum of the hearth could not banish the cold dread that gnawed at their hearts.
As the days turned into nights, the storm approached, its ominous presence casting long, menacing shadows. The town fell silent, a hushed anticipation hanging heavy in the air. The bleak horizon, once a distant threat, now loomed large, a harbinger of doom.
*CLEARS THROAT*
Oh, sorry, I thought I was alone staring out this window. Our draft is almost here! A thing for which I’m definitely excited and not at all worried about colossally fucking up for the (fill in any number you like) time in a row.
Because I know how this can go for me:
I will keep two players at the same position, neither of whom are undisputed top-5 guys, but both of whom have optimism around them and could finish in the top 15 at their spot. I’ll do this because I convinced myself I’ll draft a top-5 guy at that position, then have depth.
“From there it’s easy,” I’ll proclaim with totally unearned confidence. “ Focus on a different position and draft a top-5 guy there, then grab the next best available guy at that same position you can afford.”
Boom. Look at that! Two star players, and three more who capably fill in the gaps behind them. A few late-draft grabs and we are off and running!
I will sit there an hour before the draft convinced I have a winning strategy (the unique '“select good players and make sure you have depth” gambit), but then the clock will strike zero and my eyes will roll over white, and a black sludge will leak from my ears. My loved ones will call out to me, but though my body is in the chair, my soul will be entirely elsewhere.
20 players will be off the board before I outbid anyone, and my first purchase will inexplicably be Tua Tagovailoa for $16, even though I could have kept him for $8. Andres set the market price after taking Rodgers for $12, so I had to strike!
Then I’ll get in a bidding war over Drake London for no reason, unaware that someone’s cat is sleeping on their laptop and that’s who I’m locked in a battle of wits with.
I will lose that battle, but somehow feel good about it because I didn’t overspend.
I’ll then convince myself this is finally the year for 29-year-old Terry McLaurin, get mad when he reaches $18, and back out of the bidding only to re-enter it when he reaches $25. I won’t get him either, but I’ll turn around and immediately spend $27 on Zay Flowers. They will both finish as the WR 36.
At this point in the draft, it will be clear to everyone in the league but me that I WILL be drafting Jerry Jeudy at some point. I won’t know this, so I will make a lot of jokes about him.
My big splash will come two hours in, when I pay into the $40s for Gus Edwards. I’ll pair that with an overbid on Jordan Addison while screaming about him being primed for a breakout despite his QB being whatever’s left of Sam Darnold, then spend $32 of my remaining $35 on Ladd McConkey.
Somehow Miles Sanders will be on my team despite me having no memory of drafting him. (I swear to god I can’t get Miles Sanders out of my life. If I quit fantasy football and walked outside right now, Miles Sanders would be standing in my driveway. If I went inside and locked the door, he’d be sitting on my couch eating my cereal. He’s my late-in-life birthmark and I fucking hate it.)
Anyway.
That’s happened to me more times than I can count, and it’s about as fun as being in wet clothes and watching Schilder’s List.
I can’t live through another draft like that. I would rather spend my whole budget on the three great players and go winless because they all got hit by lightning in Week 1. I’d rather I get hit by lightning in Week 1.
I wasn’t always like this! I don’t know when it happened, but somewhere along the line, I started becoming just as surprised by the people I drafted as they were to be drafted by me. It’s incredible. I created a reality where I have no idea who I am picking despite being the one actively selecting them.
But despite all this, I am NOT the worst drafter. Not even close, actually.
If you read the previous dispatch, you know I have access to every bit of information now, including every draft pick and a system by which to judge them. And judge them I shall. First, here’s a handy scatterplot showing how draft value correlates to a team’s season finish:
If you care, value is assigned to a pick (or keeper selection) based on money spent relative to team budget, and relative to money spent on that position across the league compared to point total contributed by that pick relative to your team and relative to that position across the league. That’s also compared to the average price of all picks and average points by all picks. The current league average value for a draft pick is 1.13.
It’s not a lock that a great draft will get you where you want to go, and it’s less of a defining factor than I expected, but clearly the road to the playoffs is a lot rougher for those who get negative value. Bad news for me.
Luckily, I do not have any of the top-3 worst-rated drafts in league history. Those belong to:
Chris Bailey 2021
Andres Santana 2017
Will Armistead 2014
I don’t have any of the best, either (fucking DUH). Those are:
Ryan Munson 2013
Steve Keers 2009
Steve Keers 2013
If you’re confused, don’t be. Munson and Steve both drafted the absolute SHIT out of 2013, but Munson’s cumulative draft score was 20 points higher than Steve’s.
The value of the average draft pick is 1.13 all time (don’t worry about the unit of measurement). In the 2013 draft, that average value ballooned to 2.02. Munson’s draft value at RB was more than 50! Obviously, the value at key positions will always be higher given the higher point output, but the cumulative team value of his draft was 95.45, against a league average of 15.12, which is insane.
But despite that dominance a decade ago, Munson’s war room success is wanting.
Here are our standings ranked by all-time average draft pick value (remember, the league average is 1.13)
1 Steve Keers 2.55
2 Chris Bailey 1.83
3 Justin Childs 1.80
4 Andrew DeWitt 1.72
5 JJ Bailey 1.36
6 Lee Morehouse .92
7 Kyle Luke .80
8 Ryan Munson .76
9 Jimmy Slater .70
10 Micah Thoman .56
11 Will Armistead .53
12 Andres Santana .21
So as we see here, Steve is the best drafter. Will, for all his success, is near the bottom, so he finds his wins through in-season moves and keepers.
Micah, also historically successful, is at the bottom of draft rankings AND keeper rankings:
1 Steve Keers 10.25
2 Will Armistead 9.04
3 Andrew DeWitt 8.94
4 Chris Bailey 8.49
5 Jimmy Slater 7.17
6 Lee Morehouse 6.90
7 Ryan Munson 6.07
8 Andres Santana 5.84
9 JJ Bailey 4.72
10 Kyle Luke 3.88
11 Micah Thoman 3.79
12 Justin Childs 3.75
Note that keeper value averages are much higher, since they usually require far less budget
How does he win? It can’t be through trades, since he opens every negotiation by offering you cold gruel in a cracked bowl in exchange for your heartiest steak, the cow it came from, and the chef who cooked it. Maybe it’s free agents? A mystery for another time.
So we know the best and worst when it comes to drafting and identifying keepers, but what about our specialists? Who among us has the eye for QBs? Or the nose for a good running back? Or the… ears, I guess, for a wide receiver?
Want to see a better QB? Lee Morehouse will throw you a deal!
Historically, no one gets better value out of their drafted QB than Lee, and it’s not close. Positionally, the average draft value of a QB over our 15 seasons is 2.52. Lee more than doubles that number.
1. Lee Morehouse 5.86
2. Steve Keers 3.64
3. JJ Bailey 3.46
4. Will Armistead 3.06
5. Chris Bailey 3.05
6. Ryan Munson 2.36
7. Kyle Luke 2.20
8. Andres Santana 2.09
9. Andrew DeWitt 2.05
10. Jimmy Slater 2.01
11. Justin Childs 1.14
12. Micah Thoman 0.48
There’s Micah at the bottom again. HOW DOES HE WIN? It confounds. Anyway, here are the best and worst picks all time at the position:
Looking for a receiver to make you a believer? Come on down to Andrew DeWitt’s!
WRs have a considerably lower average draft value at 0.17. Compared to quarterbacks, they draw way more money in the draft positionally, and we draft way MORE of them, so inevitably their average value will be lower. But that hasn’t stopped DeWitt, who leads us in success rate:
1. Andrew DeWitt 1.80
2. Steve Keers 1.78
3. JJ Bailey 1.05
4. Micah Thoman 0.70
5. Justin Childs 0.65
6. Ryan Munson 0.04
7. Lee Morehouse -0.14
8. Jimmy Slater-0.46
9. Kyle Luke -0.58
10. Andres Santana -0.62
11. Will Armistead -0.93
12. Chris Bailey -1.17
Finally, Micah is up there. But uhhhh, yeesh. Chris and Will are getting absolutely conned by the WR market. Getting worked over by Ol’ Gil, as they say.
“How many TY Hiltons and Brandin Cooks can I put you down for, a lot? Please say a lot- I need this.”
For all things running, we at Chris Bailey’s have your back!
Chris don’t want no namby pamby air points! Chris wants her boys to keep their heads out of the damn clouds and their feet on the Earth! Backs, like wideouts, have a much lower average pick value historically. For our drafts, the league average is .82. But don’t tell that to Chris, because holy shit does she set the curve:
1. Chris Bailey 4.68
2. Steve Keers 3.58
3. Justin Childs 2.94
4. Andrew DeWitt 1.50
5. Kyle Luke 1.49
6. JJ Bailey 0.99
7. Ryan Munson 0.51
8. Jimmy Slater -0.09
9. Lee Morehouse -0.37
10. Will Armistead -0.74
11. Micah Thoman -0.90
12. Andres Santana -1.45
That right there is an individual operating outside the bounds of mathematics. Chris don’t care. Chris don’t miss.
Also, I see you down there at 11, Micah. What is it you would say you do here, exactly?
Kind of funny that Chris has that great of a track record with RBs but doesn’t have any of the top-5 value picks AND has the worst value pick of all time, but what did I say about mathematics?
When money is tight, end your troubles with Will Armistead!
I’ll save you the suspense of defense (Jimmy is number one!) and kick- oh. Ohhhhhhhhh baby. What oh what do we have here?
Who was it that hated kickers and wanted to get rid of them again? Show yourself!
J’accuse!
So, now you know what you’re good at and what you aren’t heading into the draft. You also know what I’ll do and if you can somehow prevent me from doing it, please yell whatever incantation it takes to make my eyes focus again.
I’ll leave you with this cool overview of which teams we favor the most and which teams have given us the best values:
See you in the war room.
