Week 14/Playoffs Week 1: The Arena
This is a two-fer, one for the week that was and another for the week to come. We’ll have some fun throughout, including a chance for you to wager your fortunes on the postseason.
Here’s where things stand and how they wrapped up
Justin and Micah return to the playoffs after a year away, while Will makes it six appearances in a row. Andres snaps a three-year postseason drought while also securing a first-round bye, and DeWitt makes his ninth playoff appearance in 11 seasons. His spot comes at the expense of Munson, who caught the ass-end of the Josh Allen Extravaganza, and that now means the poor man has missed the playoffs eight years in a row. That’s absolutely brutal, considering the next-longest dry spell in league history is three seasons.
DeWitt is coming off a three-year run with a championship and two second-place finishes but enters this postseason with the longest odds of his postseason career (more on that later).
Kyle is chasing his second title and fourth medal, having just finished third a year ago. He’s looking to silence critics (Steve) who whisper that 2020’s championship comes with an asterisk.
Both Andres and Justin are chasing their first title, and neither has finished on the podium in 12 years. Micah knows the playoffs well, but it’s been 13 seasons since he last hoisted the trophy, something he no doubt needs to do to help shore up support in a fanbase complaining about warning track power when it comes to postseason results. He and Will are the only two teams in the 3,000 playoff point club, he just hasn’t been able to convert those points to big wins.
And then, of course, there’s the big man. A championship gives Will the outright lead with four, and having now made 13 postseasons in 16 years, his playoff records continue to swell. His next postseason win will be his 21st, with the closest pursuers (Micah and DeWitt) at 13. His next point will be his 3,855th, roughly 800 more than Micah at number two and more than 1,300 more than Lee at number three. If he finishes in the top three, his 12 medals will double the closest contender (Steve).
If you’re doing the math up in your noggin, that means that in the 12 playoff appearances before this one, he’s finished first, second, or third 11 times. He may be the low seed in the bracket, but I’d bet most of the money in play is on Will to win. History like that moves markets.
So before we dive into the Round 1 games, let’s quickly look at our final regular season week.
Inspiration corner
Now is not the time for villainy, but the time for heroism. Each week of the playoffs we will honor our own heroes, this week Jonnu Smith for doing an entire day’s work in three overtime catches, by celebrating an inspirational moment from entertainment history.
Coach Yoast from Remember the Titans
This movie is corny as hell and I love it so much. If you haven’t seen it in awhile, this scene takes place during a game in which the officials are clearly throwing things for the opposing team in hopes of handing the titular Titans a loss and getting Denzel Washington fired as coach. Denzel, if you didn’t know, is black. That’s a problem with this being the time of school integration and all, and school district officials are looking to get him out of there and Will Patton (Yoast) back in charge.
Yoast doesn’t like this one bit, and lets the officials know he’s not having it. But that’s not enough, so he calls his defense over and gives them this speech, wherein he basically tells them to fuck the other team all the way up.
Anyone who has played sports knows there’s an extra gear you have that’s reserved for when your coach makes things personal. 99 percent of the time, good coaches keep an even keel. The players have emotions, and the coach’s job is to manage them and channel them toward good play. Even if players get mad or feel personally aggrieved by an opponent, the coach is there to remind them to stay grounded and play with discipline. Wholesale pursuit of vengeance can blind a player, causing them to make mistakes or create vulnerabilities elsewhere even if they achieve their goal.
But sometimes, what’s happening in the game is so egregious, or the conduct of the other team is so infuriating, that the coach can’t take it anymore. They’re right there with the players in the emotional boiler, and let slip the veil of unflappability. They’re pissed, and they decide it’s time the team do something about it.
On the few occasions that happens, as a player you feel like a dog that just got let off the chain. Not only is coach allowing you to tap into your malice, he wants you to. It’s justified. Righteous, even. It’s like your engine just got some pure jet fuel poured in it.
I’ve gotten that speech in other sports and been ready to run through a cement blast wall. If I had been a football player for Coach Yoast? I might have gotten arrested after that speech. I’d be hitting dudes 10 yards out of bounds. The parking lot wouldn’t have been safe for them.
Bonus points for what he says later to Denzel when the team is on offense:
“Run it up, Herman! Leave no doubt!”
Fuck yeah, coach. Let’s get it.
Final Regular Season power rankings
| Rank | Team |
|---|---|
| #1 | Micah Thoman |
| #2 | Justin Childs |
| #3 | Andres Santana |
| #4 | Will Armistead |
| #5 | Kyle Luke |
| #6 | Andrew DeWitt |
| #7 | JJ Bailey |
| #8 | Jimmy Slater |
| #9 | Ryan Munson |
| #10 | Steve Keers |
| #11 | Chris Bailey |
| #12 | Lee Morehouse |
THE
GAMES
THE GAMES
Micah Vs. Steve (118.1-72.8)
Well, it certainly wasn’t pretty, but Micah got it done. Through Week 12, he had only posted two scores of less than 129 points. He lost both of those games (Week 6 and Week 7). He doubled that total in the last two weeks, putting up less than 120 back-to-back, but winning both contests.
This week he, like Justin so often before him, believed a little too much in the Bears; benching Brock Purdy and his 24 points against Chicago for Kyler Murray, who was playing a Seahawks team that just beat the shit out of him two weeks ago. Murray is currently the QB 8 in fantasy, which seems crazy until you remember that the average weekly score of a QB in our league this year is somewhere around 15 points. It doesn’t take much to be a Top 10 quarterback this season- just put up 2-3 games of 300/2 and run a little bit and you’re pretty much minted. You can fart out as many 9-14 point games as you want after that.
Seriously, look at the consistency chart for QBs 5-12. The big number is where they ranked for fantasy at the position each week:
These aren’t streaming guys. They are, by total points, QB1s. Among the 12 best. Yet week-to-week, it’s anyone’s guess. The top 12 running backs are more predictable, but when it comes to RB2s, go ahead and toss a dart.
But no position is more laughable than wide receiver, where even the MOST reliable guys can abandon you at a moment’s notice. (Chase’s Week 14 numbers are not in because this was before the game ended but he was number 1 again)
What are we doing here?! I know nobody is perfect, but every guy in WR1 territory has disappeared multiple times, and when they have, it’s been bad enough to lose you the week. There are no sure things this season, so when you playoff owners are unable to sleep, just know your peers have the same problem.
Where was I?
Oh yes, Kyler sucked but Micah endured, and he didn’t really have to sweat since Steve benched Jordan Addison before heading off to Europe. It’s tough to blame him for that, since Addison’s season high was 72 yards and he averaged around 40 per game until a 162-yard explosion in Week 12. He went right back to mediocre numbers the next week, so betting on eight catches for 133 yards and three touchdowns would have been a very dumb thing to do.
Steve’s running backs did what they were made for, and Patrick Mahomes turned back into a pumpkin as the Chiefs abandoned shame entirely. At this point it has to be spite. Every Kansas City win is a colossal “fuck you” to the viewer. They have turned their victories into gruesome spectacles, exercises in joyless brutalism building to their opus: a Super Bowl win devoid of any aesthetic value whatsoever. Their goal is to raise the Lombardi Trophy to a chorus of anguish, and watch as humanity tries desperately to piece its shattered collective psyche back together. Andy Reid will laugh, deep and booming, as we claw our eyeballs from our faces. It will be like that scene from Event Horizon.
Oh yeah- Josh Jacobs did it again. Three touchdowns this time. Micah must have worn a lacy number and really turned on the charm for this one.
“Oh heavens! If only there were a big, strong hero to fell this dastardly villain and save little ol’ me! I would be eternally grateful…”
Mfer fell for it again.
But is he hot?
On draft night, Micah demonstrated comprehensive knowledge of the aesthetic hierarchy of white players in the NFL. After rigorous scholarship, he is prepared to defend his dissertation asserting Aiden O’Connell is the ugliest of the NFL’s caucasian offerings. This season, we endeavor to test this theory.
Your winner:
Drink him in. Ashtyn Davis came into our lives mid-tournament and ran the table to the end. It was never really close, honestly. He won by a landslide nearly every time. The study is now concluded. Micah can return to university having field-tested his hypothesis and found that Aiden O’Connell is not, in fact, the ugliest white dude in the NFL.
Will Vs. Jimmy (156.9-115.5)
Well, the good thing for Jimmy is now the beatings can cease. This makes it 11 out of 14 weeks that someone scored 130 points or more on him, the sixth time it was 140 or more and the third time it was 150 or more.
I’d say he took it on the chin this season, but that poor sumbitch has taken it all over. There wasn’t an inch of him that didn’t catch those hands. Will had him thoroughly crushed, but Jimmy still had Burrow going to help save a little face. It wouldn’t change things, but at least it would give the fans something positive to take into the offseason.
Instead, Will capped Jimmy’s elimination by dropping 16.6 more points from Rico Dowdle and nearly posting the weekly high score.
Kyle Vs. Chris (167.4-129.2)
Kyle Weekly High Score
Do you know about the Higgs Boson? It’s a whole complicated thing, but essentially physicists long theorized there was a field that existed at the subatomic level throughout the universe, and that field is responsible for giving elementary particles (electrons, quarks, etc) mass. Think of it like a big sheet of molasses, but everywhere and at a quantum level. When particles push through it, they gain mass, the theory went, and if that were true, it would fill in the massive missing piece of our understanding of physics.
So to prove it exists, CERN researchers used the Large Hadron Collider to smash particles into one another at near-light speeds, and after untld attempts, they were able to detect a new particle created in the collision. That particle gave mass to every other particle around it, but disappeared the instant it was observed. It was proof the field exists, and the particle (named the Higgs Boson) was created by that collision interacting with it.
It was a momentous day for science, but also the end of a torturous road for the physicists who had been testing the theory. See, detecting the particle was near impossible, not only because observing it caused it to immediately disappear, but finding it in the chaos of a subatomic explosion was beyond a needle in a haystack.
One scientist said, “it’s like trying to hear a faint whisper amid a thunderous NASCAR race.” Others said it was like trying to find a single voice in the chorus of the universe. But they kept searching, for decades, because if they could find it, it would answer the greatest remaining question in how our universe was formed. It would be the sweet song of order, the clear signal cutting through the cosmic cacophony; proof that there is a knowable design to all this, or at least an understandable mechanism that governs it.
I can say now I fully understand how the CERN scientists felt. The universe reached out to me, a single note cutting through the din of disorder, to let me know there is a plan.
That plan, to my great delight, is focused on Kyle Luke, of Kansas City, Missouri, and is something of a scared straight program to get him to stop being a hapless doofus when it comes to his wide receivers.
The universe, tired of watching Kyle bumblingly mismanage his stable of six wideouts, decided to take his toys away. It forced one out with a TNF game against the Lions. It took others on bye. Finally, it took Ladd McConkey by injury, leaving Kyle to sit there and take it. Take the fact that he has SO many wide receivers, but none of them can start. He just had to endure the shame of an empty lineup spot. This was the universe telling him “If you don’t get your shit together, I’m just going to take receivers out of your hands altogether. Look how easy this was for me. Don’t make me come back here.”
This happened during the only week where Kyle’s outcome didn’t matter, but he got the message. So did I, and I can now rest easy knowing the universe and I view Kyle and his roster choices the same way.
Chris went down swinging, but Zach Charbonnet decided to try living up to his second-round draft pick for once, just to see how it felt. He put up 45, because the universe was too busy focusing on Kyle’s wide receiver fuckups to keep order elsewhere, and put Chris away.
But this is the part of the season where Chris begins test-driving players for next year, giving the obscure and the overlooked some run in hopes of finding a diamond in the rough. I like this, because I play a little game with myself and try to guess who she earmarks for a late-draft snag next season. It’s also fun because I get to see some weird lineups and discover players only Chris could find.
Who the fuck is Sincere McCormick? I think I might have heard his name once before, but I certainly dismissed it as a glitch in my audio processing. There’s no one named Sincere playing in the NFL, JJ. You must have misheard. But there he is, starting at RB for Chris like some Madden create-a-player she ported into the real world. I’m convinced he didn’t exist before she had him. At least not to us. He came from a special waiver wire only she can see. This is where she gets the Cade Ottons and Tre Tuckers. The Keaton Mitchells and Jordan Whittingtons. She orders off the secret menu.
I look forward to watching Fluff McButterscotch throw touchdown passes to Indignance O’Malley for her in Week 16.
JJ Vs. Justin (136.4-133.5)
I realized my mistake about an hour after sending out the dispatch last week. When I first started doing the playoff scenarios, I was using my phone to look at the league while getting a pedicure (my son loves them so we go every few weeks and he gets to pick my nail polish color. It’s key lime this time). At the time, Micah had a different team name that looked a lot like Lee’s at first glance, and their avatars are very similar- especially when condensed on a phone screen.
So I filed it in my head that Andres was playing Micah not Lee. When I got home I did all the scenarios, but I never corrected that original mistake. So because there was a scenario where Micah and Andres both win, Justin could lose the bye if he suffered defeat. And wouldn’t you know it?
I love Justin very much and wish the best for him in life. I’ve known him since I’ve had memories and he’s been a best friend since my brain started recording. He and Micah came with my original software. We have history, most of it good, and I’d do anything for him.
But this here? This is fantasy football. If you’re telling me, the last team out of the playoffs, that if I win I can snatch a bye from a team that scored the second-most points in league history and blew me out once already, well then:
OoooooWEEEEE that feels GUUUUUUUD.
THAT’S how you take momentum into the offseason, people. Take note.
Tha Point Gawd damn near did his Point Gawd thing again, conjuring some bullshit scenario where the Dallas special teams unit decided to play tetherball with a blocked punt at the end of the game and give possession BACK to the Bengals so they had one more chance to throw to Ja’Marr Chase. Of course they did, and this possession that should not have existed in the first place turned into 40 more yards and another touchdown for Justin’s guy.
Coming into the MNF game Justin needed Chase to get 45 to win. He got 41. But it stopped there, and Justin finished with 1,994.3 points on the season, 7.9 shy of Steve’s all-time record set last year.
On my side, I’d like to thank Jonnu Smith for the win. My new favorite player had a big old ZERO through four quarters of play, having been targeted once all game for an incompletion. Then they went to overtime, and Smith caught three passes for 44 yards and the game-winning touchdown. Zero points to 11 in under two minutes.
Jonnu walked into the party as late as he possibly could, took the hand of the lady Justin had been flirting with, and walked out the back door with her without ever breaking stride. There’s something poetic about it being a tight end that did that.
Speaking of poetry, hit it, boys:
Can’t Bear It
Did Justin start a Chicago Bear when he shouldn’t have?
Oh, I could not WAIT to get here
Who was it?
Say it with me: D’Andre Swift, running back for the Chicago Bears
Who should he have started in his place?
Darnell Mooney
How many points did it cost him?
14.7! And a first-round bye!
Examination
I said last week that with Flus gone, this section would likely be less fun for me. My friends I stand here today never happier to be wrong.
It got more fun.
All season long I’ve been harping on the dangers of Justin putting Bears where he shouldn’t, noting that sooner or later it will cost him dearly. Not even in my most optimistic moments could I have cooked this one up.
I want to encase this outcome in amber. I want to mount it above my fireplace so I can look at it year-round. If I could heat it into a liquid and bathe in it, I would.
Let this be a cautionary tale to all you star-crossed lovers. Attraction can be dangerous and affection can be deadly. This is what a toxic relationship looks like.
Season impact:
88.3 lost points (or, put another way, the difference between having and not having the all-time record for points in a season)
Dewitt vs. Munson (144.7-128.3)
I have to say, for as relieved as I am that Munson’s roster, designed as a prank on me, is not in the playoffs, I felt a twinge of sympathy for him.
I hate his team, but they were great villains. Given that we celebrated villainy all season long, it’s important to respect it when it’s done well. The mark of a great bad guy is you being happy when they are defeated. The mark of the BEST bad guys is you also feel a little sad that they’re gone.
Munson dialed up a fantastic opus, getting 23 from Rachaad White and 35 from SAM DARNOLD. He even found the Justin Jefferson switch behind a stack of old newspapers and flipped him back on.
Of course he is who he is, so he also started Ray Davis and Mike Gesicki, and there was Westbrook-Ikinhe in his lineup again. Still, it almost worked. When you get 35 from Sam Darnold and you also have Jefferson, it’s hard to imagine you lose, much less get blown out. But DeWitt has Josh Allen, and if there’s one thing Josh Allen specializes in, it’s doing things you didn’t think to imagine.
We haven’t seen a QB score like this in 15 years. Even when Chris had Peyton Manning and he threw for seven touchdowns, we didn’t see 50 points. My brain is fallible, as demonstrated by me mixing up Micah and Lee’s teams, but I am virtually certain that the only other time a quarterback reached 50 points in our league was when Michael Vick hit 51 in Week 10 of 2010. Vick threw for 333 yards and four touchdowns and ran for 80 and two more. Allen’s 53.2 was not quite that outrageous, mainly because he’s in the midst of an MVP season in his prime and Vick was returning from a multi-year suspension for being CEO of a puppy murder enterprise, but it’s still astounding.
342 yards through the air, 82 on the ground, and three touchdowns in both pursuits. It was the only thing that could kill Munson. If Allen had gotten his previous season high, 30.9, DeWitt loses. But there was some magic left in the chamber, and Allen carried the dead weight of multiple Chiefs players to lug DeWitt to the postseason.
I find myself saddened by this, not only because none of our children have known a year when Munson made the playoffs, but because now I don’t know what to do with myself. I’m like the dog that caught the car. Now I just sit staring out my window hoping for something to excite/enrage me.
Andres vs. Lee (117.9-95.8)
That’s right, baby. Big Daddy is going dancing. Andres did what everyone else did but me, dispatching Lee and securing himself a first-round bye in the process.
This marks his best season of all time, a 10-4 campaign in which he finished second in the regular season and had the biggest blowout of the year, a 95-point win against Steve in Week 9. That blowout ranks 10th all-time. Andres has now won eight or more games three times. The previous two he finished in the medals. Now, they were the first two years of the league, but the Santana Gauntlet proved to be a sound predictor, so don’t start betting against trends now.
Lee ends finishes the season with a whole host of ignominious records, the latest and greatest being 13 losses. It’s the most defeats suffered in a single year, and if I hadn’t fucked it all up by losing to him (and thusly missing the playoffs) he would have tied the all-time losing streak at 14.
As it stands, he now owns:
Worst single season winning percentage (.070)
Most losses in a season (13)
Worst start to a season (0-12)
Longest in-season losing streak (12 games)
It could have been so much more, but I got too excited for it. Lost focus. That’s on me. Now we must wait years for another shot at imperfection.
ROUND 1 PREVIEW
ROUND 1 PREVIEW
CHAMPIONSHIP ODDS FOR THE FIELD
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Micah Thoman | +350 |
| Justin Childs | +450 |
| Will Armistead | +475 |
| Kyle Luke | +600 |
| Andrew DeWitt | +650 |
| Andres Santana | +950 |
Justin losing the bye damaged his odds, dropping him from +325 this week to +450 with his new playoff draw. Playing Will in Round 1 has oddsmakers bearish, given that the game is close to a coin toss and matchup history favors Will nearly 2-to-1.
Micah’s bye boosted him to the odds favorite, and his draw of either Kyle or DeWitt means he won’t play a team that scored more than him on the year until the championship game should he make it.
Kyle and DeWitt are next, with Kyle getting the edge due to a big advantage in season points and record against shared opponent. Winner gets Micah, and when they faced him in the regular season, Kyle won handily while DeWitt lost.
Andres gets the bye, but his path to the championship is brutal, especially given the gap in points scored on the season vs. either Justin or Will. He was at +1600 as recently as two weeks ago, but his odds have steadily shortened with the emergence of Jerry Jeudy and the continued Top-10 production of Chase Brown. He also has Lamar, which means all things are possible in a pinch.
Team Matchups and Analysis
Justin Vs. Will
Will -9.5
O/U 289.5
The Pittsburgh vs. Philly game will be huge in this one, with critical players for both teams facing great defenses. Justin’s biggest X-factor is Saquon Barkley. The running back is always good for 100+ yards, but the difference between good weeks and great weeks for Justin is when he gets in the endzone. Because the Eagles have made it very clear that goal line work goes to Hurts (they even structured Barkley’s contract so he wasn’t tied to a TD bonus), Will has a safety blanket once Philly is inside the 10. But Saquon has shown scoring from further out isn’t a problem, and given our scoring bonuses for long TDs, when he hits pay dirt he hits BIG.
The Steelers don’t allow a lot of explosive runs (fifth-fewest rushes allowed of 10+ yards), but we saw the Eagles run Barkley 600 times against Baltimore, so it’s not like he won’t get his chances. Pittsburgh is killing quarterbacks when they run single high safety, getting 11 picks and dragging opposing QBs’ passer rating down to 73.5. They’re now lining up that way on more than 70 percent of dropbacks so don’t expect gaudy passing numbers from Hurts. This will be about who can get the ground scores.
Will also has Najee Harris should he choose to play him in the flex, but he’ll be facing a top-10 rush defense across the board.
Justin also has a boomer in Ja’Marr Chase, and given the Bengals are fighting for their life, he’s hard to bet against. But they’re playing the Titans, and for all of Tennessee’s haplessness on offense, they have an elite pass defense. The toughest thing for Chase is that the Titans do not allow extended dropbacks, which is how Burrow and Chase do 75 percent of their damage.
Will has the RB matchup advantage in the two-slot, with Rico Dowdle facing the league’s sorriest run D in Carolina (170 yards allowed per game!) and James Cook facing Detroit. Detroit’s front isn’t what it was, but they’re still no picnic and Josh Allen is hoovering up the gimme TDs that used to go to Cook.
The X-factor in this one, other than whether or not Justin will be starting Chicago Bears when he shouldn’t, is tight end.
George Kittle is George Kittle, so there’s nothing more to be said there. But Will has Tre McBride, who is right behind Kittle in the standings and has put up an astounding 141 points WITHOUT the help of a single receiving TD.
McBride missed a game and is STILL ninth in the NFL in targets. Not among tight ends, among everybody. He has 106 targets and CeeDee Lamb has 131. He is the only player in the entire league with 65 targets or more to not have a touchdown.
He’s proven he can put up monster numbers without scoring, but sooner or later he has to get a receiving score, right? Did you know DK Sportsbook has a real prop bet called the McBridesmaid? If you take it you bet that he gets nine or more catches but doesn’t score. That’s how stupid this has gotten.
If he gets into the promised land, he can match any Kittle blowup. If Kittle fizzles and McBride breaks through, that could be the point swing that moves the needle.
Kyle Vs. DeWitt
Kyle -12.5
O/U 149.5
This one comes down to a matchup advantage for Kyle and uncertainty for DeWitt. The running backs are the biggest what-if, given that Pacheco’s output is anyone’s guess. Looking at the snap and carry counts last week, it’s clear he’s the primary back over Hunt, but how much the Chiefs use him and what he can do against Cleveland while still getting back to form is a major question mark. Tyrone Tracy is DeWitt’s two, but the Giants can’t pass and Baltimore’s run defense is a brick wall. Pacheco will need to look like his old self DeWitt wants to hang. Kyren is back to being a TD machine and the Rams will be out for blood in San Francisco, and Kyle smartly invested early in the 2024 Charbonnet vintage, so he’s covered if Walker can’t go against Green Bay. It’s a step down in quality, but much like lesser alcohol, it will get the job done if you drink enough of it.
DeWitt’s can go punch-for-punch at wideout since JSN has been the alpha in Seattle lately and McLaurin is the most dependable receiver not named Ja’Marr Chase. Kyle has Daniels at QB, so DeWitt also wins the point exchange every time the two hook up. Daniels can get points on the ground, but his big games also mean big games for Scary Terry.
Nico is a beast and the Texans are at home in what will likely be a shootout, so Kyle gets a pop there, but Zay Flowers is an entirely unstable element, as are any of his replacements. Chubba Hubbard is all alone in the backfield again so DeWitt has a big advantage in terms of floor at the flex, but Kyle has several options for the slot that all have big ceilings.
Josh Allen is sick as hell but he’s still facing Detroit, so expecting another 50 points seems like a stretch. He’ll get his, but it’s far more likely to be a human number somewhere in the low-to-mid 20s, especially since he’s on the road.
TEs are a wash at this point.
I hate to say it, but while Kyle has better matchups top to bottom, the determining factor in this will be if he picks the right combo of wide receivers for his WR2 and Flex spots. I enjoy making fun of him about this, but we’ve all been in that spot before and it sucks. You know in your bones that there is a RIGHT combination out there. Two of these guys will have great games. The problem is you also know there is a WRONG combination, and two of them will have bad games. It never comes down to “oh they all had good days, I couldn’t go wrong.”
Kyle can survive one misfire, but two dead spots in the roster is probably fatal. If he picks right, I think he’s got too much firepower for DeWitt. If he picks wrong, DeWitt’s reliable floors will be enough to advance.
EXPERT PICKS:
Our cappers here at Bailey’s Sportsbook took a look at all the numbers and ran 100 simulations to determine the best picks
Safest money odds on the title futures has to be Micah, who has more than enough to roll into the championship and can run with anyone in the field on points. However, given the sizeable gap between playoff appearances and playoff wins, we caution against too much certainty. There’s a lot of concern about postseason performance here. Justin and Will will draw the most action, as the winner of Round 1 will be the odds favorite coming out of it. It’s too close to call for us, so if you like either team, lay your money on who you think survives the week. Vegas isn’t dumb, so there’s not a ton of value for bettors there given the shorter odds, but there won’t be any value after this week, so get in now.
The best value we see is on Andres at +950. Yes, his regular season numbers are underwhelming, but the market is being slow to adjust to the team he has now. Brown and Robinson are both RB 1-caliber, and if Jeudy and Thielen are going to play like this (nothing indicates they’re going to slow down), then he’s a 140-point team with Lamar. He’ll need Kelce to get past the big boys, but in terms of risk/reward, he’s the best bet on the board.
Round 1 picks
Justin +9.5, Over 289.5
Kyle -12.5, Over 149.5
